Brief Review of the Rocket and Space Industry in the First Half of 2024, part 1: Rockets and Big Money

Events in 2024 have shown that the rocket industry shows no signs of slowing down. Indeed, new technologies, manufacturing processes, and design approaches are only contributing to an increase in momentum. This has been demonstrated by the moderate but steady growth in the number of orbital launches, especially from the new generation of launch vehicles that industry giants have been developing over recent decades.

This year will also be remembered for the start of active efforts to reestablish a presence on the Moon, currently through the deployment of unmanned spacecraft that are laying the groundwork for future manned missions. Today, we present a brief overview of some of the most notable events in the rocket and space industry during the first half of 2024. 

The rocket sector: long-awaited debuts and painful failures

The year in rockets kicked off with the launch of the heavy, two-stage Vulcan Centaur, which the American United Launch Alliance (ULA) had been developing since 2014. The primary client for the new rocket was intended to be the Department of Defense, which aimed to deploy several military satellites into various types of orbits.

However, the Vulcan Centaur’s first mission, launched on January 8, 2024, focused not on US national security, but on science. It carried the Peregrine spacecraft, which was tasked with releasing a lander upon reaching lunar orbit. This platform was intended to perform a soft landing on the Moon, the results of which we will cover in our review of this year’s lunar missions.

The Vulcan Centaur launch was noteworthy not only as the first launch of the year but also because its new ULA rocket uses a metal-oxide fuel mixture. The Vulcan Centaur will serve as the primary replacement for the Delta IV Heavy, which saw its final launch this year on April 9, having completed a total of 16 launches, 15 of which were successful.

The first Vulcan Centaur launch also served as a demonstration of the new BE-4 engine, developed by Blue Origin, which uses staged combustion with liquid methane fuel. This rocket engine can generate a thrust of 2.4 meganewtons and, in addition to the Vulcan Centaur, will be used on Blue Origin’s own flagship rocket, the New Glenn, which may debut later this year. From this perspective, the success of the Vulcan Centaur’s first launch was also a remarkably successful demonstration of a new high-powered propulsion system now possessed by the United States.

The next Vulcan Centaur launch will be dedicated to the needs of the U.S. Space Force (USSF). It will carry out a government mission under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. Along with ULA, the winners of the third phase of this program were SpaceX and Blue Origin (with their Falcon 9 and New Glenn launch vehicles, respectively).

While SpaceX had several launches this year, Blue Origin’s long-awaited New Glenn debut has yet to happen. In February 2024, the rocket was shown to the press on the launch pad, but it wasn’t in a hurry to take off: the demonstration model didn’t even have its main engines installed!

As of now, we have confirmation that New Glenn is being prepared to lift off from Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) no earlier than September 29, 2024. The rocket’s first mission will attempt to deliver two orbital probes to Mars: Escape and the Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorer (together known as EscaPADE). The EscaPADE mission was originally planned to fly as a secondary payload during the upcoming NASA Psyche launch. However, the replacement of the mission’s primary rocket (Falcon Heavy was chosen instead of Falcon 9) made it impossible to include the Mars probes on Psyche. As a result, EscaPADE was adapted for launch on New Glenn. Blue Origin’s new rocket is also planned to be used for the Artemis space missions.

In the first half of 2024, SpaceX continued its primary mission of deploying the Starlink telecommunications constellation, and the percentage of Falcon 9 missions dedicated exclusively to deploying Starlink satellites is increasing.

In 2020, SpaceX launched Falcon 9 rockets with third-party commercial or government payloads almost as many times as it did Starlink satellites (12 and 14 deployments, respectively). However, in the first half of 2024 (through June 30), Starlink deployment missions accounted for 70% of all Falcon 9 launches (20 of 47). Data from the second quarter of 2024 indicate that Starlink missions made up 75% of all Falcon 9 space launches.

This indicates that SpaceX will continue to focus its efforts on maintaining its own satellite constellation. This attention to Starlink is driven not only by the desire to increase the number of users but also by concerns related to strengthening U.S. national security in space.

The war in Ukraine has confirmed the high demand for high-speed satellite communications, both for the stable operation of government and civilian institutions and for military purposes (SpaceX is developing a separate satellite constellation called Starshield for the latter role).

However, Elon Musk has faced numerous accusations that access to Starlink satellite resources is not limited to the U.S. and its allies but is also being exploited by the militaries of openly hostile countries. The company’s official representatives, meanwhile, simply deny that they have made any direct sales of their services to rogue states.

SpaceX planned to carry out 148 orbital launches in 2024. As of August 19, the company had achieved 82 launches (79 with Falcon 9, two with Starship, and one with Falcon Heavy). Although these results might indicate that the company is unlikely to meet its goals, SpaceX has been working to increase the frequency of its launches every month. Furthermore, we should not overlook the consistently high success rate of their missions: 98.7% of SpaceX launches end successfully, which is an impressive figure given the overall pace of its operations.

In Europe, the most significant space-related event was the first demonstration launch of the Ariane 6, the heavy-lift launch vehicle that the European Space Agency (ESA) has eagerly awaited for several years. Ariane 6 was developed by CNES, ESA, ArianeGroup, Arianespace, and several other subcontractors, mainly European startups. The launch of ESA’s new workhorse took place on July 9 from the spaceport in French Guiana.

The new rocket comes in two versions: Ariane 62, which is capable of delivering 10.35 tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), and the more powerful Ariane 64, with four side boosters, capable of carrying 21.6 tons to LEO. During its July 9 demonstration, the upper stage of the Ariane 6 released its payload, a collection of experimental satellites from various private companies and research centers across Europe, into a 600 km orbit.

In contrast to the successful launches by the American-European trio of Ariane, Vulcan Centaur, and the partially successful launch of Starship SuperHeavy, the failure of China’s Tianlong 3 rocket by Space Pioneer was particularly notable. On June 30, 2024, during the final phase of a static fire test, the Tianlong 3 experienced an abnormal launch. After the ignition of the Tianhuo-12 (TH-12) engines, which use liquid oxygen/kerosene fuel, the rocket unexpectedly lifted off from its stand and began an uncontrolled ascent, eventually crashing 1.5 km southwest of the launch pad.

The launch of another heavy-lift rocket, the Long March-6A, was also accompanied by a significant amount of orbital debris. On August 6, 2024, the Long March-6A delivered the first batch of 18 flat-panel satellites for the future Qianfan (“Thousand Sails,” also known as G60 Starlink) telecommunications mega-constellation into a polar orbit of 800 km.

However, upon re-entry into the atmosphere, the rocket’s upper stage disintegrated, scattering between 300 and 700 small fragments into low Earth orbit. On August 8, the U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM) confirmed that it had detected a cloud of over 300 fragments resulting from the Long March-6A launch. Later that day, LeoLabs, a private company that specializes in orbital awareness, published a post on X (formerly Twitter) noting that it was now tracking between 700 and 900 pieces of small orbital debris created by the Chinese rocket’s destroyed upper stage.

On August 14, China finally acknowledged that the first stage of the Long March-6A was destroyed during the launch, and the country is taking measures to address the creation of one of the largest clouds of space debris in the last decade. Despite the rocket’s failure, the mission was considered a success in China, since the launch vehicle successfully deployed 18 satellites into their designated orbit before the upper stage malfunctioned during re-entry.

In contrast to the problems caused by the Long March-6A, the Gravity-1 (Yinli-1 in Chinese) launch by the private aerospace company Orienspace was more successful. This solid-fuel, expendable launch vehicle was launched from a platform in the Yellow Sea on January 11, 2024.

In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, two more Gravity-1 rocket launches are planned, both from sea platforms. Currently, the rocket remains the most powerful solid-fuel launcher in China, with a payload capacity of 6.5 tons to LEO, but Orienspace is already preparing for the debut of the Gravity-2, scheduled for next year. Gravity-2’s purported payload capacity is 25.6 tons deliverable to LEO. Overall, China’s main space contractor, the state-owned China Aerospace Corporation (CASC), plans to conduct 70 rocket launches in 2024. Along with planned launches by private aerospace companies, China is set to achieve 100 rocket launches in 2024, 33 more than in 2023.

In terms of announced launches, 2024 should see 223 liftoffs, a figure derived from previously announced missions. If such estimates are true, this will break 2023’s record for orbital launches, which stood at 211 successful launches and 223 attempts in total.

The largest investments and contracts

The second quarter of 2024 saw a series of new contracts being concluded, as well as an influx of investment capital totaling $793 million. As often happens, the largest deals were international, although domestic contracts (especially in the United States) also involved significant amounts.

On June 6, 2024, just 24 days before the failed launch of China’s Tianlong 3 rocket, Tianlong’s developer, Space Pioneer, secured $207 million in a Series C funding round. The company announced that 15 investors from both the private sector (Bohua Capital Management, Guoyu Gaohua, and Deyue Investment) and the public sector (Wuxi Chuangfa, CCTV Fund, CITIC Securities Investment, Hefei Ruicheng, and SDIC Taikang) contributed funds. One can only wonder what these investors thought when, just a few weeks later, the ambitious reusable rocket project would suffer one of the most unfortunate failures in its relatively short history. In any case, despite these setbacks, Space Pioneer remains the largest private aerospace company in China. Moreover, the demonstration of the return of the Tianlong 3 rocket’s reusable first stage, scheduled for the end of this year, may further strengthen its position not only in China but also globally.

The Finnish company, ICEYE, which offers on-demand satellite monitoring services, also attracted multimillion-dollar investments. ICEYE’s SAR monitoring satellites are capable of observing the Earth’s surface in both optical and radio wave ranges. During the latest funding round on April 17, 2024, the Finnish satellite company managed to raise $93 million. The lead investor was the state sovereign investment fund Solidium Oy, which headed the investment round. Other investors included Move Capital Fund I and Blackwells Capital. ICEYE is currently expanding its satellite monitoring constellation, with the number of satellites expected to increase by 15 in 2024, bringing the total to 49 units that will offer services on demand.

Among lesser-known companies in the sector, the Spanish rocket startup PLD Space managed to secure a  large investment amounting to $84 million (€72 million). The company intends to use the funds to open its first rocket manufacturing plant near Elche, Spain. It is here that PLD Space plans to produce its lightweight, reusable two-stage launch vehicle, the Miura 5, designed to carry payloads and small satellites weighing up to 540 kg.

Micro-launch vehicles like the Miura 5 have attracted increasing attention over the past year. Rockets capable of delivering payloads from 150 to 1,000 kg into orbit are proving to be particularly flexible options for deploying small satellite constellations, especially those that need to be placed in specific or unconventional orbits. These small rockets are also attractive terms of being able to launch satellites into orbit relatively quickly after concluding a contract. Compared to larger rockets, which require significant technical preparation before launch, small launch vehicles are a more flexible and faster solution.

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace also secured an additional $70 million in investments during an extended Series C round on June 20 of this year. The company plans to use the funds to expand production of its Spectrum small launch vehicle. Notably, one of the primary investors in this round was a joint fund that includes 24 out of the 32 NATO member countries. This innovative fund has already announced plans to invest over $1 billion in aerospace startups, companies developing new artificial intelligence systems, and deep tech. In addition to Isar Aerospace, the NATO innovation fund has also invested in the British aerospace startup Space Forge, although the exact amounts of the investments received from this fund remain undisclosed.

Overall, 80% of the total investment in the rocket and space industry comes from venture capital. The United States continues to be the most promising destination for investment in the sector. The United Kingdom ranks second, with investments in British companies this year accounting for 17% of the total inflows into the industry.

In 2024, the diversification of the base of key investors has continued. The situation is significantly different from even three years ago, when the vast majority of investments – about 63% –  in the sector came from new investors. Today, the number of newcomers has decreased, with deep tech funds increasingly taking their place as recognizable players in the sector. 

At the beginning of July 2024, Airbus Defense and Space won a $2.5 billion contract from the German Bundeswehr to produce a new generation of communication satellite networks, consisting of a pair of SATCOMBw 3 satellites. These systems are planned to be launched into geostationary orbit by the end of the decade and are meant to replace the SATCOMBw 2 satellites that the Bundeswehr has been operating for the past 15 years. The new satellites, based on the Eurostar Neo platform (also developed by Airbus), are expected to provide higher signal bandwidth and ensure increased resilience against cyber attacks and interceptions.

For their part, the aforementioned ULA and SpaceX will receive an additional $1.8 billion through expanded cooperation with the United States Space Force (USSF). Previously, a five-year contract had been signed as part of the implementation of the second phase of the NSSL, but the increase in the number of planned missions, growing from 34 in 2019 to 49 in 2024, has predictably led to a rise in the contract’s value, which now amounts to $1.1 billion for ULA and $661 million for SpaceX. It is expected that ULA will be responsible for 54% of the missions, with the remainder to be carried out by Musk’s company.

It’s also worth noting that all three of the companies that are currently involved in the third phase of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program (ULA, SpaceX, and Blue Origin), will be competing for Pentagon contracts worth a total of $5.6 billion. This includes 30 space launches for the NSSL, scheduled to take place between 2025 and 2029.

Another billion-dollar order came in January of this year from the Space Development Agency (SDA). The agency selected three companies, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, and Sierra Space, to build 54 satellites equipped with infrared sensors, which will be integrated into the Tracking Layer, a multi-tiered satellite system designed to provide early warning of missile launches.

The total value of the contract for producing these satellites amounted to $2.5 billion. Although each company is responsible for producing 18 satellites, the total contract amount was unevenly distributed among the participants: L3Harris received $919 million, Lockheed Martin secured $890 million, and Sierra Space will build its 18 satellites for $740 million. Lockheed Martin and L3Harris had previously won contracts from the SDA, but this is the first time Sierra Space will be developing satellites for the Tranche 2 Tracking Layer. The delivery and subsequent deployment of this new batch of military satellites are planned for 2027.

Stay tuned for the next part of our review of events from the first half of 2024, where we will cover the most significant lunar missions.